基于皮尔逊相关系数和Kolmogorov–Arnold网络的煤炭总热值预测模型研究

Research on Prediction Model of Gross Calorific Value of Coal Based on Pearson Correlation Coefficient and Kolmogorov-Arnold Network

  • 摘要: 煤炭总热值(GCV)是评估煤炭质量的重要指标,直接影响燃烧效率和生产成本。然而,GCV受元素组成、工业分析指标等多因素影响,变量之间存在复杂的非线性关系,使得传统线性回归、经验公式及部分机器学习模型难以精准建模。深度学习方法(如LSTM、Transformer)虽然能捕捉复杂模式,但其“黑箱”特性限制了工业应用。为准确预测煤炭总热值(GCV),提出了基于皮尔逊相关系数和Kolmogorov–Arnold网络的预测模型,通过特征选择和非线性建模,显著提升了预测精度,为煤炭质量评估和燃烧效率优化提供了技术支撑。实验结果表明,该模型在MAE、MSE等指标上均优于传统方法。

     

    Abstract: The gross calorific value (GCV) of coal is an important indicator for coal quality evaluation, which directly affects combustion efficiency and production costs. However, GCV is affected by multiple factors such as element composition and industrial analysis indicators, etc., and there are complex nonlinear relationships between variables, making it difficult for traditional linear regression, empirical formulas, and some machine learning models to accurately model. Although deep learning methods (such as LSTM and Transformer) can capture complex modes, their "black box" characteristics limit industrial applications. In order to accurately predict the gross calorific value (GCV) of coal, a prediction model based on Pearson correlation coefficient and Kolmogorov-Arnold network is proposed. Through feature selection and nonlinear modeling, the prediction accuracy is significantly improved, providing technical support for coal quality evaluation and combustion efficiency optimization. The experimental results show that this model outperforms traditional methods in terms of MAE, MSE, and other indicators.

     

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