基于LSTM的多元融合瓦斯浓度预测方法研究

Research on Multivariate Fusion Gas Concentration Prediction Method Based on LSTM

  • 摘要: 瓦斯浓度精准预测对煤矿瓦斯灾害防治具有重要意义。然而,在地质环境复杂的深部煤矿开采过程中,实现工作面瓦斯浓度长期预测具有很大的挑战。研究提出了一种基于LSTM的回采工作面瓦斯浓度多元信息融合预测方法。该方法基于实时监测数据和非时序监测数据的指标体系,利用LSTM非线性拟合融合多元指标,最多可实现对工作面瓦斯浓度10步长预测,预测结果平均绝对误差均小于0.04,瓦斯浓度预测值(%)的平均绝对误差由0.034 3降低到0.027 3。结果表明,建立的多元融合指标体系,能够精确预测工作面瓦斯浓度变化,提高预测结果的精确性,为瓦斯灾害治理提供了重要的基础。

     

    Abstract: Accurate prediction of gas concentration is of great significance for the prevention and control of coal mine gas disasters. However, achieving long-term prediction of gas concentration at the working face during deep coal mining under complex geological conditions remains highly challenging. This study proposes a multivariate information fusion prediction method for gas concentration in a fully mechanized mining face based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. This method is based on an indicator system of real-time monitoring data and non-time-series monitoring data, using LSTM nonlinear fitting to fuse multiple indicators. It can achieve up to 10 step prediction of gas concentration in the working face, and the average absolute error of the prediction results is less than 0.04. The average absolute error of gas concentration prediction value (%) is reduced from 0.034 3 to 0.027 3. The results show that the multivariate fusion index system established can accurately predict the changes in gas concentration in the working face, improve the accuracy of the prediction results, and provide an important foundation for gas disaster control.

     

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