基于GRU的高突煤层瓦斯浓度时序预测方法

Time Sequence Prediction Method for Gas Concentration in High Outburst Coal Seams Based on GRU

  • 摘要: 为解决高突煤层综采工作面瓦斯浓度精准预测难题,提高矿井瓦斯防控的时效性,结合开采工况、地质条件及空间关联特性,建立瓦斯浓度影响因素指标体系,采用递归特征消除法(RFE)筛选最优特征,确定高抽管道工况混合量、高抽管道压力、回风隅角工况混合量、回风隅角管道压力及瓦斯涌出量为核心预测特征,基于门控循环单元(GRU)建立瓦斯浓度预测模型。研究结果显示:GRU时序模型预测值与现场真实值拟合度均大于0.86,平均绝对误差(MAE)均小于0.015,均方根误差(RMSE)控制在0.02以内,对比传统模型预测结果,MAE降低了40%,有效提高了预测精度与稳定性,为矿井瓦斯预警与防控提供了可靠技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: In order to solve the difficult problem of accurate prediction of gas concentration in fully mechanized mining faces of high outburst coal seams and improve the timeliness of gas prevention and control in mines, this article combines mining working conditions, geological conditions, and spatial correlation characteristics to establish a gas concentration influence indicator system, the Recursive Feature Elimination Method (RFE) is adopted to screen the optimal feature, and the core prediction features are determined as the mixed amount of high extraction pipeline working conditions, high extraction pipeline pressure, mixed amount of return air corner working conditions, return air corner pipeline pressure, and gas emission quantity. A gas concentration prediction model is established based on Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). The research results indicate that the fitting degrees of the predicted values and the on-site actual values of GRU time sequence model are both greater than 0.86, their Mean Absolute Error (MAE) are both less than 0.015, and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is controlled within 0.02. Compared with the traditional model prediction results, the MAE is reduced by 40%, effectively improving the prediction accuracy and stability, and providing reliable technical support for gas early warning and prevention and control of mines.

     

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