井工煤矿地质环境风险的多准则决策模型应用与分级分析

Application and Hierarchical Analysis of Multi-criteria Decision Model for Geological Environmental Risks in Jinggong Coal Mine Area

  • 摘要: 针对鑫顺煤矿区复杂地质环境所带来的风险问题,采用了TOPSIS多准则决策模型进行风险评估,通过分析矿区的地质稳定性、地下水位、断层密度和采矿深度等关键因素,构建标准化决策矩阵并计算加权得分,从而对矿区进行风险分级。根据综合得分将矿区划分为高、中、低风险等级,设定相应的风险防控策略:高风险区域(0≤Ci<0.30)需加强地质监测与应急预案,中风险区域(0.3≤Ci<0.7)需优化采矿工艺,低风险区域(0.7≤Ci≤1)则可进行常规管理。通过敏感性分析,验证了模型在不同权重设置下的稳定性,且分级结果与历史数据一致。该方法为矿区的地质环境风险管理提供了科学依据,能够有效识别高风险区域,指导矿区安全管理和风险控制,确保矿区的安全开采和环境保护。

     

    Abstract: Aiming at the risk issues caused by the complex geological environment in Xinshun Coal Mine Area,the TOPSIS multi-criteria decision model is adopted for risk assessment.By analyzing key factors such as geological stability,groundwater level,fault density,mining depth and others of the mining area,a standardized decision matrix is constructed and weighted scores are calculated to classify the risks of the mining area.According to the comprehensive scores,the mining area is divided into high,medium,and low risk levels,and corresponding risk prevention and control strategies are set:high risk areas (0≤Ci<0.30) need to strengthen geological monitoring and emergency plans,medium risk areas (0.3≤Ci<0.7) need to optimize mining processes,and low risk areas (0.7≤Ci≤1) can be managed routinely.Through sensitivity analysis,the stability of the model under different weight settings is verified,and the grading results are consistent with the historical data.This method provides a scientific basis for geological environmental risk management in mining areas,can effectively identify high risk areas,guide safety management and risk control in mining areas,and ensure safe mining and environmental protection in mining areas.

     

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